In recent times I’ve noticed people get confused when it comes to personal experience vs base-rate.

Which should you trust?

We must learn to distrust personal experience a bit when it conflicts with the base-rate; but when the base-rate comes from an uncertain secondhand source, we must also distrust it when it conflicts with personal experience. Conflict between these two important but imperfect sources of information should temper our judgements and beliefs. Sometimes this note of epistemological caution is all that can be said about integrating divergent sources of information. But even that can be helpful because distinguishing what we know well from what we only think is true is itself an important advance.

It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.